CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-02-17T20:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23802/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T09:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T02:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1487.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 853.041 Acceleration: -1.10298 Duration in seconds: 196436.39 Duration in days: 2.2735693 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.10 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 636.4 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 20/02/2023 Time: 02:56 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 15.18 hour(s)
Difference: 6.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-02-19T18:41Z
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